Potential Coverage and Federal Funding Losses for Massachusetts if California v. Texas Ultimately Overturns the Affordable Care Act

November 9, 2020

California v. Texas, a case currently before the U.S. Supreme Court, seeks to overturn the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The court is expected to begin hearing arguments on this case on November 10, 2020. A final ruling that overturns the ACA would have widespread implications, affecting every state in the nation.

This brief and companion infographic describe what’s at stake for Massachusetts if the court were to overturn the ACA — focusing on what it could mean for the state’s health insurance coverage rates and federal funding. This analysis is based on two scenarios: 1) where the ACA is overturned in its entirety and the state is not able to reestablish the subsidized coverage programs created by the state’s 2006 health reform and 2) where the ACA is overturned, but the state is able to reestablish its 2006 coverage programs.

The estimates described in this brief are generated from a model developed by the Urban Institute, which was used for a similar analysis released by the Foundation in December 2019. This new analysis uses state-level 2019 and 2020 cost and coverage data from MassHealth, the Health Connector, and the Center for Health Information and Analysis. The updated data used for this analysis captures many of the changes to the health insurance coverage landscape in Massachusetts as a result of COVID-19 and the associated economic downturn.